Enjoy Your Thanksgiving

Ah, the pleasures of Thanksgiving: Family, Food and Football. Best wishes to all.

Reuters: The Rise And Fall of The U.S.A.

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful, U.S. spy agencies projected on Thursday.

The National Intelligence Council analysis "Global Trends 2025" also said the current financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering.

The U.S. dollar's role as the world's major currency would weaken to become a "first among equals," the report said.

The outlook is intended to inform U.S. President-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by U.S. intelligence analysts.

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," said the report, which was more pessimistic about U.S. influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020.

Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council and deputy national director of intelligence for analysis, said harmful outcomes were not inevitable.

"It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, (or) in some cases (the) working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," Fingar told reporters. "We could have a better world in 2025."

China and India, following a "state capitalism" economic model, were likely to join the United States atop a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report said.

Russia's potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment. But Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT

A world with multiple power centers has been less stable than one with a single or two rival superpowers, and there was a growing potential for conflict, the report said.

Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources.

"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report said.

"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while -- such as over resources -- could reemerge," it said.

Global wealth was seen shifting from the developed West to the energy-rich Gulf States and Russia, and to Asia, the rising center of manufacturing and some service industries.

Global rich-poor disparities would grow, leaving Africa vulnerable to increased instability.

A reordering of the world financial system was happening faster than the report's authors envisioned, Fingar said. Last weekend's Group of 20 summit of advanced and major developing countries in Washington showed work had begun, he said.

A shift away from an oil-based energy system will be underway or complete by 2025. Better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power offer the best opportunity for a quick and low-cost transition, the report said.

There was a greater, but still small, risk of nuclear attack, based on spreading technologies and the weakening of international nonproliferation systems.

If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, Fingar said, that could set off an arms race in the Middle East, which is considered in the report as an "arc of instability."

The risk that militant groups would use biological weapons was greater than the risk of nuclear terrorism, the report said.

The appeal of terrorism could decline over the next two decades, particularly if Middle Eastern countries provide productive education and opportunities for their young people, the report said. But with a growing population, the pool of potential terrorism recruits is likely to be larger, and access to dangerous weapons will rise.

By Randall Mikkelsen, Reuters.

All Eyes On the Cheney Circus

A sad state of affairs in my neighboring county as several prominent public officials including Vice-President Dick Cheney are fighting indictments by the local prosecutor. Although I am not a big fan of the vice-president, this unfortunate situation can bring sympathy to the most unsympathetic figure. Unfortunately these are the indignities paid by public figures.

The Brownsville Herald has the latest.

UPDATE: Indictment thrown out.

Legislators Must Make A Choice

Yes, the headline is just some more of that ever popular coyness, as the Speaker's race continues here at the Texas capitol. While that plays itself out in private discussions among individual members, other tough choices confront legislators in coming days.

With the beginning of the 81st legislative session starting in approximately 55 days, legislators are presently picking offices, parking spaces and House floor desks in anticipation of the session. Today I reviewed my options and will submit my choices tomorrow. Soon to be freshmen members will also commence their initial initiation to the process as they start their freshman orientation.

Back to the Speaker's race, today my good friend Burt Solomons threw his hat into the ring. He joined other contenders in competing for the top spot in the Texas House. This election is watched with great interest by House members. Today that interest continued unabated. For the uninitiated, the election is decided by legislators on a vote on the first day of session. Campaigning is, for the most part, done in private with member to member conversations.

As I have noted before, a slim ruling majority will likely result in the necessity of building a more bi-partisan coalition in order to pass legislation. We have long ago made the choice to always run our office with an eye towards bi-partisanship and feel very comfortable in this environment. I therefore am looking forward to yet another successful session for our delegation and our community.

UPDATE: Made "the choice" this morning - staying in the same office.

New Board Sworn in at Edcouch Elsa ISD

I had the pleasure to swear in a new political majority in the Edcouch-Elsa School District. Following the school board elections there is new hope that the district will be able to free itself from the financial problems of the past. My best wishes to the school district leadership in this worthy effort.

The Monitor has more on the story.

High Flight

It's a late night flight home and as I stare out the aircraft window at the night time sky I remember from my childhood the "High Flight" video that ended the day's television programming each night. Those of you who lived through the 60's may remember the inspirational poem by John Gillespie Magee, Jr.

I'll sign off this Sunday night as I and many Americans did in simpler times. Good night.

High Flight

Oh! I have slipped the surly bonds of Earth
And danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings;
Sunward I’ve climbed, and joined the tumbling mirth
of sun-split clouds, — and done a hundred things
You have not dreamed of—wheeled and soared and swung
High in the sunlit silence. Hov’ring there,
I’ve chased the shouting wind along, and flung
My eager craft through footless halls of air....
Up, up the long, delirious, burning blue
I’ve topped the wind-swept heights with easy grace
Where never lark nor even eagle flew—
And, while with silent lifting mind I’ve trod
The high untrespassed sanctity of space,
Put out my hand, and touched the face of God.

Enjoy Your Weekend

A Veteran's Day Gift to Dolia Gonzalez

In commemoration of Veteran's Day I presented Dolia Gonzalez with a framed print of her son signed by Governor Rick Perry and the Rio Grande Valley legislative delegation.

We salute all of our nation's veterans on this day and extend our appreciation for their service.

Rep. Harper-Brown Wins Election By 20 Votes

Incumbent Linda Harper-Brown (R) appears to have won the counting of overseas and provisional ballots in the closely watched race for Texas House District 105 against Bob Romano (D). The election victory appears to be by a mere 20 votes. With all the ballots counted late Monday night, Harper-Brown's final total was 19,856 to Romano's 19,836.

Although I would expect an election contest to follow, if matters remain the same, it appears to indicate that the Republicans will maintain control of the Texas House by one vote.

The accusations have been flying back and forth on this one so I expect this not to be the end of it. Look for this to initiate additional movement from the members.

UPDATE: The AP confirms.

Legislation for Valley Medical School Filed

My office has filed legislation today that would create a medical school in the Rio Grande Valley. I filed House Bill 110 on the first day lawmakers are able to file legislation for the upcoming 81st Legislature which begins on January 13, 2009.

It is time for the Rio Grande Valley to begin training and educating its own doctors. The success of the medical research and education programs provided by the Regional Academic Health Center proves that we are ready for a full-fledged, stand-alone medical school.

The Texas Legislature established the Regional Academic Health Center (RAHC) as a medical education and research program serving Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr and Willacy Counties. The Legislature specified that the RAHC would work with local hospitals to provide undergraduate clinical education, graduate education, including residency training programs, and other levels of medical education. The medical education component of the RAHC is based in Harlingen with Valley Baptist Medical Center serving as the primary teaching hospital for medical students receiving their 3rd and 4th year of education. The medical research division is located in Edinburg. The RAHC is administered by the University of Texas Health Science Center San Antonio.

We have proven, working partnerships with Valley Baptist, the University of Texas Pan American, the cities of Edinburg and Harlingen and others. Now is the time for us to bring in the federal government and develop a veteran’s hospital to complement a medical school in the Rio Grande Valley. South Texas has the social, economic and human capital to make this succeed.

A recent report by the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board recommends that the next medical school built in Texas should be in the Rio Grande Valley. For years Rio Grande Valley veterans have traveled to San Antonio to receive hospital services. As you may recall I have called on the federal government to join a coalition of state and local resources committed to providing care for our veterans while training and educating generations of home-grown doctors.

Herding Legislators

I am home in my beloved Texas and all is well. All is well except for the stirrings at the Texas Capitol. To date, nothing has been resolved in this momentous struggle for the gavel that leads the Texas House. In my absence each side of the battle has mustered their faithful to do battle. Unfortunately, mustering legislators is much akin to herding cats.

Each side repeats the same refrain, "we have the votes" to win this battle. Now there is one of two things going on here. One, one side is clearly not telling the truth or two, both sides are counting the same "faithful", thus leading to an inaccurate count. We certainly heard the "we ain't lost a one of them" in the last go round.

Many are still waiting for tomorrow's recount in the Linda Harper Brown race up in the Dallas area to see if a Democrat might still have a chance. Expect the spin to be hot and heavy as we continue the struggle to determine the balance of power in the Texas House.

As the cowboy so correctly put it, "I wouldn't do nothing else."

UPDATE: The first group endorsement has come in.

Inaugural Theme: "A New Birth of Freedom"

I recently received an invitation to attend the inaugural ceremonies for our new president Barack Obama. My bride gave it the go ahead. So I am expecting to join my son, who worked on the Obama campaign, and the rest of my family in Washington for the ceremonies.

The Washington Post reports that words taken from the Gettysburg Address, "A New Birth of Freedom," will be woven throughout the inaugural ceremonies and will commemorate the Feb. 12, 2009, Lincoln Bicentennial. So many historical references will come together with the inauguration.

Inauguration anticipation builds as the historic January 20 event rapidly approaches. The City of Washington should be inundated with hundreds of thousands of visitors who will flood the capitol city for the inauguration ceremonies. This point can be most clearly shown by the fact that hotel rooms in the city for the dates in question have been booked for months.

I hope to report back as time permits.

44th President of The United States Barack Obama

What a great and historic victory!

Democrats Gain 3 in Texas House Of Representatives

As I predicted, Democrats gained three seats in the Texas House of Representatives. That’s short of the five seats needed to claim a majority (or the four-seat jump that would leave the parties tied at 75 seats each).

I am of the opinion that the final outcome of the speaker's race is rapidly becoming apparent and that apparency will be made public in coming days.

A yet unresolved race could still increase or shrink the Democratic pick-up depending on the final outcome. In Irving, Republican Linda Harper-Brown beat Democratic challenger Bob Romano by 25 votes. Look for a recount. If this race changes, it's a whole new ballgame.

If things remain the same, Republicans will remain the majority party. A Republican speaker will likely result. The best the Democrats could hope for was a 75-75 tie if the Linda Harper-Brown race was to change.

Presently, prevailing wisdom here at the capitol is that if Republicans retained control of the House even by one seat, Craddick would win a fourth two-year term as speaker. Some in the House do however disagree with that opinion and vow to fight on.

I am expecting that we will soon see a preview of the coalition that will elect the speaker of the Texas House. I will keep you informed as matters progress.

Here’s the final outcomes of House seats from last night:

Republican-to-Democrat:

-- HD 52 (Williamson County; open seat, Mike Krusee retired): Diana Maldonado defeats Bryan Daniel, 48.6 percent to 47.4 percent.

-- HD 78 (El Paso County; open seat, Pat Haggerty defeated in primary): Joe Moody defeats Dee Margo, 51.5 percent to 45.1 percent.

-- HD 96 (Tarrant County): Chris Turner defeats incumbent Bill Zedler, 51.3 percent to 46.6 percent.

-- HD 101 (Dallas County; open seat, Thomas Latham defeated in primary): Robert Miklos defeats Mike Anderson, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent.

-- HD 102 (Dallas County): Carol Kent defeats incumbent Tony Goolsby, 53 percent to 47 percent.

-- HD 133 (Harris County): Kristi Thibaut defeats incumbent Jim Murphy, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent.

Democrat-to-Republican:

-- HD 17 (Bastrop, Fayette, Lee, Colorado, Burleson, Brazos Counties; open seat, Robby Cook retired): Tim Kleinschmidt defeats Donnie Dippel, 54 percent to 42.9 percent.

-- HD 32 (Nueces, San Patricio, Aransas, Calhoun Counties): Todd Hunter defeats incumbent Juan Garcia, 50.1 percent to 46.8 percent.

-- HD 97 (Tarrant County): Mark Shelton defeats incumbent Dan Barrett, 55.4 percent to 42.7 percent.



(okay the photo is a bit much but in some ways appropriate)

Legislators Gather In Austin For Post-Election Politics

While many will put their primary focus on the historic presidential and important local elections another equally important political race will be on the minds of many state legislators. The race for the Speaker of the Texas House for the 81st legislative session will find greater clarity after today's legislative elections across the state.

This May 23, 2007 "Rock Paper Scissors" photo was taken by AP photographer Harry Cabluck. It shows four Republican representatives who at that time announced that they were candidates hoping to replace Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick, R-Midland.

This cycle Democrats are hoping the current political environment will lead to a Democratic majority in the Texas House and result in the election of a Democratic Speaker of the House. At this time those election results are still merely a prognostication but later tonight those results and the result of the speaker's race will be made more apparent. I'll be in Austin to gather with my colleagues in order to resolve this important election.

The Austin American Statesman has a well written story that covers the dynamics of this election within an election.

Out Foxing the Fox

Danny Kaye is great in this old time classic I caught this weekend. This bit got me thinking of the dirty tricks we see each political cycle and how we have to be one step ahead of the tricksters. I guess everything is seen through the prism of politics this time of year. Is it me or are they now a fixture of modern campaigning. Sad.

They should come to an end soon as election day is upon us. Ah, yes, I nearly forgot, we begin another cycle the day after. Oh well, let's try not to forget the refrain of the Black Fox.

Lincoln 200th Birthday Events

The new year will bring two big historical events. First, I am anticipating the inauguration of the first African-American president on January 20, 2009. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day will be celebrated during the week long inaugural celebration.

Secondly, on February 12, 2009, as I have previously noted, this country will celebrate the 200th birthday of the "great emancipator", Abraham Lincoln.

Here is a Washington Post listing of events.